Selecting the winner of the Kentucky Derby is easy ? Just select the favorite and after the two most exciting moments in sports only go money your tickets.
That plan has worked in a row, starting with Orb in 2013, who returned $12.80 for a $2 win wager, and including last year where Justify got the job done as the favorite, returning his backers $7.80. What the heck is happening?
By 2005 until 2012 the typical win mutual was 41, and we had two mad winners who paid over $100–Giacomo ($102.60) at 2005 and Mine That Bird ($103.20) at 2009.
This year Game Winner is your 9-2 morning line favorite after the scratch of Omaha Beach on Wednesday.
The Bob Baffert trainee is the real deal, the winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last year, leading to him winning the Eclipse Award for high juvenile of 2018. He has lost both of his starts this year, but put in strong efforts in runner up finishes.
He is a logical favorite but must deal with two of his stablemates that both have solid credentials, Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Roadster and Arkansas Derby (G1) runner up Improbable. They’re the co-second options on the morning line at 5-1.
Yes, Hall of celebrity Trainer Bob Baffert, who has saddled the Triple Crown winner in two of the past four decades will be sending out the top three betting choices from the race. It will be the first time in the history of the Kentucky Derby a coach has had the three gambling options.
That is a whole lot of firepower for one barn and which makes it only a little less likely a longshot is going to win this season’s edition.
However, they still have to conduct the race. About Kentucky Oaks Day, we watched the champion juvenile turf filly of 2018 Newspaperofrecord go down to defeat chances of 1-5 in the Edgewood (G3).
Thus, let’s look for three Derby longshots that May Have a chance to be in the search when they come into the stretch under the Twin Spires on Saturday day:
Tacitus is coming from a good looking win at the Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct going nine furlongs, He started off his three-year-old effort by winning the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). He broke his maiden over a wet track and contains a solid off course pedigree. He’s by Tapit and also the first foal to race out of the stakes winner Close Hatches, a multiple Grade 1 winner who made $2.7 million and was the champion older female in 2014.
The colt is trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, who has not had some success in the Derby (0 8, the ideal finish with Hofburg past year (seventh). The Wood has not been a productive race within the past 15 years or so. We have to return to Funny Cide in 2003 to locate the last Derby winner to prep there. Overall 20 Derby winners utilized the Wood as a prep. The colt looks as if he still has some upside and should get a fantastic trip sitting mid pack with an ideal place.
Code of Honor (12-1)
Code of Honor is trained by Shug McGaughey who won the 2013 Kentucky Derby with Orb in the slop. I’ve enjoyed this colt because his runner up finish in the Champagne (G1) last year in his second career start. He failed to fire at the Mucho Macho Man within his three-year-old introduction, assessing in fourth, and bounced back with a smart triumph in the Fountain of Youth (G2) in 9-1.
Last in the Florida Derby (G1) he had been bumped coming out of the gate, raced near the back of the pack behind a dawdling pace and made up some ground late. He desires pace and may not get it, but I am confident jockey John Velazquez will find this guy close enough he will have an impact late.
Trained by Todd Pletcher who has two Derby wins under his belt (Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming at 2017), this colt is lightly raced and flying beneath the radar. He was third at the Saratoga Special (G2) last summer at Saratoga and has put in two impressive efforts this season. He rolled over first-level allowance firm by 11 3/4 spans at Tampa Bay Downs off a six-month layoff. Then he made his stakes debut in the Louisiana Derby (G2) where he tracked the early pace, took on the lead heading for home but got run down by By My Standards. He is bred to enjoy a wet track and is going to be a big price. The outside post is not perfect, but he has enough tactical speed to maintain the mix early.
Handicapper Michael Dempsey will be covering the Triple Crown for OddsShark and his full card reports with selections, analysis, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for important tracks can be found every day at turfnsport.com.
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