Kentucky Derby Sleepers: Looking for Live Longshots

Selecting the winner of the Kentucky Derby is easy ? Simply choose the preferred and then after the two most exciting moments in sports just go money your tickets.
That plan has worked in a row, beginning with Orb in 2013, who returned $12.80 for a $2 win bet, and including last year where Justify got the work done as the preferred, returning his backers $7.80. What the hell is happening?
From 2005 until 2012 the average win mutual was 41, and we had two upset winners who paid over $100–Giacomo ($102.60) in 2005 and Mine That Bird ($103.20) in 2009.
This season Game Winner is your 9-2 morning line favorite after the scratch of Omaha Beach on Wednesday.
The Bob Baffert trainee is the real deal, the winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last year, resulting in him winning the Eclipse Award for high juvenile of 2018. He has lost both of his starts this year, but set in solid efforts in runner up finishes.
He is a logical favourite but must cope with two of the stablemates that both have strong credentials, Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Roadster and Arkansas Derby (G1) runner up Improbable. They’re the co-second options on the morning line at 5-1.
Yes, Hall of celebrity Trainer Bob Baffert, who has saddled the Triple Crown winner in two of the previous four decades will likely be sending out the best three betting choices from the race. It will be the first time in the history of the Kentucky Derby a coach has had the three betting options.
That is a lot of firepower for a single barn and which makes it just a little less likely a longshot will win this year’s edition.
But they still need to run the race. About Kentucky Oaks Day, we saw the champion juvenile turf filly of 2018 Newspaperofrecord go down to defeat at odds of 1-5 in the Edgewood (G3).
Thus, let’s search for three Derby longshots that might have a chance to be in the search when they come into the stretch beneath the Twin Spires on Saturday evening:
Tacitus (8-1)
Tacitus is coming off a great looking win at the Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct going nine furlongs, He started off his three-year-old campaign by winning the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). He broke his maiden on a wet track and contains a solid off course pedigree. He is by Tapit and the first foal to race out of the stakes winner Close Hatches, a multiple Grade 1 winner who made $2.7 million and has been the champion older female in 2014.
The colt is trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, who has not had any success in the Derby (0 8, the ideal ending with Hofburg last year (seventh). The Wood hasn’t been a productive race over the previous 15 decades or so. We have to go back to Funny Cide in 2003 to find the last Derby winner to prep there. Overall 20 Derby winners used the Wood as a prep. The colt looks as if he has some upside and should find a good trip sitting mid pack with a perfect place.
Code of Honor (12-1)
Code of Honor is trained by Shug McGaughey who won the 2013 Kentucky Derby with Orb in the slop. I’ve liked this colt since his runner up finish in the Champagne (G1) last year in his second career start. He failed to shoot at the Mucho Macho Man within his three-year-old debut, checking in fourth, also bounced back with a smart triumph in the Fountain of Youth (G2) at 9-1.
Last in the Florida Derby (G1) that he had been bumped coming out of the gate, raced near the back of the bunch behind a dawdling pace and made up some ground late. He needs pace and may not get it, but I am confident jockey John Velazquez will get this man close enough that he will have an effect late.
Spinoff (30-1)
Trained by Todd Pletcher who has two Derby wins under his belt (Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming in 2017), this colt is lightly raced and flying beneath the radar. He was third in the Saratoga Special (G2) last summer at Saratoga and has set in two impressive efforts this season. He rolled over first-level allowance company by 11 3/4 lengths at Tampa Bay Downs off a six-month layoff. He then made his stakes debut in the Louisiana Derby (G2) where he monitored the early pace, took on the direct heading for house but got run down by By My Standards. He is bred to enjoy a wet track and will be a major price. The outside post is not ideal, but he’s sufficient tactical speed to be in the mix early.
Handicapper Michael Dempsey will soon be covering the Triple Crown for OddsShark along with his full card reports with selections, evaluation, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for major tracks are available every day at turfnsport.com.

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