This weekend, we’ve got a PPV card at Vegas. DraftKings has some solid competitions for us to acquire a lot of money from this week and I can’t wait to chase those huge prizes. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $50k goes to 1st place with a total of $250k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier only tournament for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first location price and that $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 entries that match. I won my very first seat into it last week and will try to get my 2nd and 3rd seats this week if possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers so be cautious chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and then throw 100 or so entries at the $50k decoration, and then I will likely have a few shots at the Qualifier. I’ll also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to get a fantastic quantity of play into money games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Jon Jones — $9,600
Jones is a lock for the money game lineup this week in his -800 betting line. I’ll take that free square foot and move on. He must dominate this fight and he can finish it on the toes or the floor. I expect him to score more than 100-points and I am totally fine with paying $9.6k for it. When I am making lineups, I want to attempt and get at least 10x from each fighter. With Jones being 9.6k, I need at least 96 points . That is how I look at it. If this was a 3-round battle and I didn’t think Jones could find a finish then perhaps he just dents 80-85 DK points in a win, and at $9.6k I would not need that. However, this is a potential 5-round fight, and that I really do expect Jones to dominate, so that price tag is fine with me. For GPPs, I think you can get from Jon Jones because he’ll be very highly owned. If he is 50% owned by the field and he only scores 85-90 DK points, then that will pretty much kill off half the area because that wouldn’t be enough points to put him on that $50k lineup.
GPP drama of the week — Ben Askren — $9,000
If Ben Askren wins this battle it will be from his wrestling. He’s one of the greatest wrestlers in MMA history and now he’s finally getting a chance from the UFC after dominating every organization he has been in. He will not wish to strike for extended against Robbie Lawler, therefore I expect him to take for takedowns right away and chain wrestle until he gets them. When he receives high control there is not going to become a lot Robbie can do on the ground and he should take a beating as long as it’s on the mat. On DraftKings, each takedown is 5 points compared to 0.5 points for a substantial strike. A guy like Askren can go out there and get 10 takedowns in 15-minutes and that’s what makes him a fantastic play if he can think of the success.
Drama of the week — Diego Sanchez — $7,100
This is not the Diego Sanchez of older, but I believe he has what it takes to beat Mickey Gall. On the feet, the volume alone from Sanchez should acquire it there as long as he does not get knocked out. The chin of Diego is what I fear about most nowadays, but Gall isn’t much of a striker and that I don’t see him getting knockout. In addition, I don’t know that Gall can get takedowns, and that I think Sanchez would be the likely guy to be on top if the struggle hits the ground. There is A submission Gall’s best chance at a win here and Sanchez has never been filed. We have to have underdogs within our DK lineups and at $7.1k Diego allows us to cover up for those men like Jon Jones or Ben Askren. If he could grind a decision triumph here I think he can become 10x that wages and if we could find a win against him in that inexpensive salary, I think we will probably be in line for that $50k win when we hit our additional five spots.
Fade of the week — Anthony Smith ($6,600)
I might wind up using every fighter because I’m making so many lineups this week, however Anthony Smith is the man I need the least of. I attempt to acquire a favored for you guys as my fade of this week but I do not believe there are any must fade favorites this week. Instead, I am going with the 1 fighter I do not think stands a chance. I think a fluke KO is the only path to victory for Smith and that he really doesn’t have the one punch/kick power that it might take to pull that off. I’d be shocked if Smith pulled off the upset this week and when I had been making 20 or less lineups, he would be a simple fade.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle about the card and give my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I’m 58-37 for +177.62un (+$17,762) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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