UFC on FOX 27 Odds: Souza vs. Brunson 2 Prediction

The next UFC event — UFC on Fox 27 — goes down this Saturday (Jan. 27th) and features a main-event tip between Ronaldo”Jacare” Souza and Derek Brunson. This is the second time these two middleweights will face off, with Souza winning through knockout in their first go around in 2012. But time is a funny thing, and six years later, it’s Brunson riding the tide of momentum while Souza regroups after a catastrophic loss that cost him a shot at the UFC middleweight title.
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While this isn’t the tastiest primary class the UFC has served, it’s a captivating contrast in styles, and every MMA event, no matter the hype, produces potential betting opportunities. Where is the wise money going for Souza vs Brunson 2?
Stay tuned for a more comprehensive look at the card at Best Bets for UFC on Fox 27 that Thursday.
Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (-160) vs. Derek Brunson (+135)
Jacare Souza combating in Strikeforce.
Jacare Souza. Photo from LowLight (YouTube) [CC License].
This is your classic battle of styles. Ronaldo Souza (24-5, 17 admissions ) is one of the very best jiu-jitsu professionals to step foot into a UFC Octagon while Derek Brunson (18-5, 10 KOs) loves to put people to sleep with his strong fists.
Initially both of these combatants met was back in 2012 under the aged Strikeforce banner, and it was really Souza who was able to put Brunson to sleep with a fast hook, just one of three career knockouts for the Brazilian.
Through GIPHY
Six years after, Brunson, a former Division II All-American wrestler (and cheerleader!) , has an opportunity for revenge.
His opponent is one of the most feared grapplers around the planet and has ended 58-percent of his struggles via submission. As he revealed in the first matchup, he is not too shabby at throwing leather . He lands a decent 2.28 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 44.1-percent.
Souza suffered a devastating loss to Robert Whittaker through head kick at his final fight (April 2017), but he’s also won 10 of his last 12 and has never lost back-to-back fights in his career. A win on Saturday would put Souza’s name back to middleweight title film, and time is of the essence for the 38-year-old.
In 34, Derek Brunson’s own career clock is now getting late. He rebounded from back-to-back losses to Whittaker and Anderson Silva with KO wins over Dan Kelly (June 2017) and Lyoto Machida (October 2017), rising up the middleweight rankings in the process. Knocking guys out isn’t anything new for its hard-hitting middleweight, who averages 3.2 significant strikes per minute using a striking accuracy of 32.1-percent. He has won 61-percent of his own struggles via KO and has produced knockouts in each of his past six successes. Interestingly, he’s never been submitted in his career.
The contrasting styles make this a tremendously interesting battle for MMA purists. Typically, it is smart to lean towards the high level grappler over the power puncher, but Souza’s age coupled with his last performance suggest a potential Brunson upset. Look for the American to utilize his speed, power, and five-inch achieve advantage (77??? vs 72???) to try to end things early, while using his wrestling to keep the fight standing.
At the moment, Brunson is listed at +135 on MyBookie.ag. It is a good value bet worth getting now.

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