NASCAR at Bristol odds, picks 2019: Model says Kurt Busch surprises at Food City 500

The 2019 Food City 500 takes place on Sunday at mythical Bristol Motor Speedway. The green flag drops at two p.m. ET, and every corner counts as a result of tight, steeply-banked track where death is at a premium. Last week, Denny Hamlin captured his second success of this 2019 Dragon Energy NASCAR Cup Series season at Texas Motor Speedway. He’s got a win at Bristol under his belt and is listed at 14-1 to triumph in the most current 2019 Food City 500 chances. But, there are six drivers using 2019 NASCAR in Bristol odds better than Hamlin, as Kyle Busch (5-2) is the favorite followed by Kyle Larson (7-1), Brad Keselowski (8-1), Joey Logano (8-1), Ryan Blaney (12-1) and Kevin Harvick (12-1). So before you create your 2019 Food City 500 choices, see the NASCAR in Bristol predictions from the proven computer version at SportsLine.

Produced by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive information scientist Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track record and recent results into account.

The model is off to a strong start in NASCAR this year, calling Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin a top-four contender from the start. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers in the Pennzoil 400, which included placing winner Joey Logano at its projected top five. It was all over Kyle Busch as a top contender at the TicketGuardian 500 and four of those motorists at McClure’s top five went to top-five finishes at the Automobile Club 400. Anyone who has followed its picks is far up.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events in iconic venues like Bristol Motor Speedway are in his blood. His model simulated the 2019 Food City 500 10,000 times and the results were so surprising.

For Sundaywe could inform you that the version is high on Kurt Busch, making a strong run at the checkered flag despite heading off as a very long shot at 14-1 NASCAR at Bristol chances.

Busch is a six-time winner at Bristol Motor Speedway and only his brother, Kyle Busch (seven), has more wins in this course among active NASCAR drivers. This includes a victory last August in the NASCAR in Bristol race because of his 30th career success in NASCAR’s top series.

The 40-year-old veteran and 2004 series champion fought his way to the front of the pack from the starting position in that race also has also previously come in the 27th and 13th starting places to succeed at Bristol. He beat Larson by 0.367 seconds last time NASCAR seen Bristol and will again start 27th on Sunday. He’s off to a hot start this season also, finishing in the top 10 in all but two races. He finished second at the Clash at Daytona and third in Atlanta.

Along with a huge shocker: Ryan Blaney, among the best Vegas favorites in 12-1, doesn’t crack the top five. There are far better values than the 12-1 premium he’s commanding.

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