NASCAR at Bristol odds, picks 2019: Model says Kurt Busch surprises at Food City 500

The 2019 Food City 500 takes place on Sunday at legendary Bristol Motor Speedway. The green flag falls at 2 p.m. ET, and each corner counts due to the tight, steeply-banked trail where death is at a premium. Last week, Denny Hamlin captured his second success of the 2019 Dragon Energy NASCAR Cup Series season at Texas Motor Speedway. He’s got a win at Bristol under his belt and can be recorded at 14-1 to win in the latest 2019 Food City 500 odds. However, there are just six drivers with 2019 NASCAR at Bristol chances better than Hamlin, as Kyle Busch (5-2) is your preferred followed by Kyle Larson (7-1), Brad Keselowski (8-1), Joey Logano (8-1), Ryan Blaney (12-1) and Kevin Harvick (12-1). So before you create your own 2019 Food City 500 picks, see the NASCAR in Bristol predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Produced by DFS expert and SportsLine predictive information scientist Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and recent results into consideration.

The model is off to a strong start in NASCAR this year, calling Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin a top-four competition from the beginning. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers at the Pennzoil 400, which included placing winner Joey Logano in its projected top five. It was all over Kyle Busch as a leading contender at the TicketGuardian 500 and four of the motorists at McClure’s top five went to top-five finishes in the Automobile Club 400. Anyone who has followed its selections is far up.

McClure, with a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at iconic venues like Bristol Motor Speedway are in his blood. His version simulated the 2019 Food City 500 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For Sundaywe can tell you the version is high on Kurt Busch, who makes a strong run at the checkered flag despite going off as a very long shot 14-1 NASCAR at Bristol odds.

Busch is a six-time winner at Bristol Motor Speedway and his brother, Kyle Busch (seven), has more wins in this course among busy NASCAR drivers. This includes a victory last August at the NASCAR in Bristol race for his 30th career victory in NASCAR’s top series.

The 40-year-old veteran and 2004 series champion battled his way into the front of the package from the starting position in that race and has also already come in the 27th and 13th starting places to win at Bristol. He conquer Larson by 0.367 seconds last time NASCAR seen Bristol and will again start 27th on Sunday. He is off to a hot start this year also, finishing in the top 10 in all but two races. He finished second in the Clash in Daytona and third at Atlanta.

And a massive shocker: Ryan Blaney, among the top Vegas favorites at 12-1, does not crack the top five. There are far better worth than the 12-1 premium he’s controlling.

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