Picking the winner of the Kentucky Derby is easy right? Simply select the preferred and after the two most exciting moments in sports only go money your tickets.
That plan has worked in a row, starting with Orb at 2013, who returned $12.80 for a $2 win bet, and for example last year at which Justify got the job done as the preferred, returning his backers $7.80. What the heck is happening?
From 2005 until 2012 the average win mutual was $41, and we had two upset winners that paid over $100–Giacomo ($102.60) in 2005 and Mine That Bird ($103.20) at 2009.
This season Game Winner is the 9-2 morning line favorite after the scratch of Omaha Beach on Wednesday.
The Bob Baffert trainee would be the real deal, the winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last year, resulting in him winning the Eclipse Award for top juvenile of 2018. He has lost both of his starts this year, but put in solid efforts in runner up finishes.
He’s a logical favorite but must deal with two of his stablemates that both have strong credentials, Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Roadster and Arkansas Derby (G1) runner up Improbable. They are the co-second options on the morning line at 5-1.
Ironically, Hall of fame Trainer Bob Baffert, who has saddled the Triple Crown winner in two of the past four years will be sending out the top three betting choices in the race. It will be the first time in the history of the Kentucky Derby a coach has had the three betting choices.
That’s a lot of firepower for a single barn and which makes it just a little less likely a longshot is going to win this year’s edition.
However, they still need to run the race. About Kentucky Oaks Day, we saw the winner juvenile turf filly of 2018 Newspaperofrecord go down to defeat chances of 1-5 in the Edgewood (G3).
So, let us look for three Derby longshots that might have an Opportunity to be in the hunt when they come in the stretch beneath the Twin Spires on Saturday day:
Tacitus is coming off a good looking win in the Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct going nine furlongs, He started off his three-year-old campaign by winning the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). He broke his maiden over a wet track and contains a solid off track pedigree. He’s by Tapit and the first foal to race out of the stakes winner Close Hatches, a multiple Grade 1 winner who made $2.7 million and has been the champion older female in 2014.
The colt is trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, who hasn’t had any success in the Derby (0 for 8, the best finish with Hofburg last year (seventh). The Wood hasn’t been a productive race within the past 15 decades or so. We have to return to Funny Cide in 2003 to find the last Derby winner to prep there. Overall 20 Derby winners utilized the Wood as a prep. The colt looks as if he still has some upside and should get a fantastic trip sitting mid-range with an ideal post.
Code of Honor (12-1)
Code of Honor is trained by Shug McGaughey who won the 2013 Kentucky Derby with Orb from the slop. I’ve enjoyed this colt since his runner up finish in the Champagne (G1) last year in his second career start. He failed to shoot in the Mucho Macho Man within his three-year-old debut, assessing in fourth, also bounced back with a smart win in the Fountain of Youth (G2) in 9-1.
Last out in the Florida Derby (G1) he had been bumped coming out of the gate, raced near the back of the bunch behind a dawdling pace and made up some ground late. He needs pace and may not get it, but I am confident jockey John Velazquez will find this man close enough he will have an impact late.
Trained by Todd Pletcher with two Derby wins under his belt (Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming in 2017), this colt is lightly raced and flying under the radar. He was third at the Saratoga Special (G2) last summer at Saratoga and has put in two remarkable efforts this year. He gathered first-level allowance company by 11 3/4 lengths at Tampa Bay Downs off a six-month layoff. He then made his stakes debut in the Louisiana Derby (G2) where he tracked the early pace, took on the direct heading for house but got run down By My Standards. He’s bred to enjoy a wet track and will be a big cost. The exterior post isn’t ideal, but he’s sufficient tactical speed to maintain the mix .
Handicapper Michael Dempsey will be covering the Triple Crown for OddsShark along with his full card reports with selections, evaluation, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for important buys can be found every day at turfnsport.com.
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